Smash or Pass: Dylan Cease
The Padres may put the big man on the market
Last offseason, the Padres traded Juan Soto knowing he would leave for greener pastures boatloads of money when his contract expired. Dylan Cease won’t command the same salary as Soto, but he is on an expiring contract and the Padres may be motivated to trade him for future assets. If they land Roki Sasaki, the probability of trading Cease will likely increase.
The Smash Case: He’s got a cool mustache
Dylan Cease bears a remarkable resemblance to Julius Pringle. I can’t find Pringle’s professional statistics, but I can only imagine they were excellent. You can’t be the face of a major potato chip brand without punching hitters out.
Outside of the mustache, Cease possesses qualities the Red Sox value in pitchers. He throws his best stuff and he throws it often. If we look at BaseballSavant’s swing/take profile, we can see how well Cease performs in the zone. On pitches over the heart of the plate, he was +12 runs. He dominates on the edges of the strike zone, posting 28 runs. Run values are somewhat abstract, but the long and short of it is that Cease is very good when he’s around the zone.
It’s a fastball/slider combo from Cease and not much outside of that. His fastball is hard (95 MPH) with good vertical movement and a bit of perceived cut. While hitters don’t often take the pitch for called strikes, they expand the zone and whiff frequently making the fastball an effective offering. He also rarely makes mistakes with the pitch. Of 75 pitchers who threw 800 or more four-seamers in 2024 only 12 threw fewer pitches over the heart of the plate. His walk rate (8.5%) suggests control issues, but some of that may be by design. It’s a feature, not a bug.
While Cease’s fastball is good, his slider is where he makes his money. It’s a gyro slider with good velocity (86 MPH) that he can throw either in or out of the zone. Again, it’s rarely ever over the heart of the plate and mostly lives in the “shadow” zone. Hitters have an incredibly tough time recognizing the pitch, leading to an absurd 44% whiff rate.
He’s also incredibly tough on right-handed hitters. In 2024, righties hit .189 against him. He struck out nearly one-third of the righties he faced. If righties can’t hit the ball, they can’t pull it over the Green Monster.
The Pass Case: He’s not as consistent as the Pringle.
Cease is a two-pitch pitcher. His fastball and slider represent 85% of his pitches. As a result, if he doesn’t have a good feel for one of them, hitters can focus on the other, leading to the occasional blowup outing and some free passes. He also throws the occasional curveball and sweeper, although neither of them holds a strike rate over 60%.
Lefties can present Cease with difficulties at times as well. It’s not a glaring issue, but it is worth noting. His fastball isn’t as effective at earning strikes against opposite-handed hitters, making it more difficult for him to put away those pesky lefties. Again, it’s not a massive flaw as lefties still hit just 0.212 against him.
Verdict: Smash
When I look at Cease, I don’t see very many red flags. As I mentioned, he has occasional blowup outings where he can’t locate one of his pitches. Maybe you don’t want him to lead your rotation because of those. On the other hand, he strikes out a ton of hitters and has a fairly simple approach that’s proven effective. Who knows, maybe the right pitching coach can give him a cutter to turn to for extra strikes, or increase his curveball usage to steal strikes and reset his mechanics when he doesn’t have the feel for his fastball.
Craig Breslow often emphasizes acquiring controllable pitching. Cease only has one year left on his deal before he hits free agency. If the Red Sox are serious about winning the division in 2025, and they should be, they should be willing to embrace the one-year rental. Without knowing the price of acquiring Cease, I’m on board with the idea. Smash.
